Methodology

How the delivery diagnosis is constructed

This page explains how start and end anchors, stage definitions, overlap handling, eligibility rules, source hierarchy, and confidence labels are applied before a figure is published.

Scope

Ireland / TransmissionAll projects and All technologies

Method version

v2-manual-case-rebuildPublished from a scoped case registry rather than a population dataset

Snapshot date

1 Apr 2026Only manually rebuilt, duration-bearing cases should re-enter this active snapshot. Archived legacy material remains outside the publication path until re-vetted.

Method overview

What is being measured and why it is publishable

  • Core research questionScope

    The current delivery work asks whether transmission project timelines can be reconstructed from public materials in a way that is precise enough for comparative research and regulatory scrutiny.

  • Variable mappingDesign

    Planning, permitting, post-consent challenge / review, and build are the published stage variables. Median and p90 delivery time are aggregate readouts built on top of case-level segment allocations inside those stages.

  • Evidence hierarchyTrust

    Statutory files, operator controls, project updates, operational signals, and proxy programme evidence are kept distinct through typed anchors and confidence labels.

  • Eligibility thresholdBoundary

    A case can appear in the registry yet remain excluded from published metrics when the active public record still lacks required end or boundary anchors.

Definition frame

Concept boundaries used across the diagnosis and registry

Delivery start

First formal public project-control or consent anchor used as the comparable start point.

Where a statutory pre-application or application filing date is publicly available, that is preferred. Where it is not, the registry may use the earliest published operator gateway or equivalent control milestone and mark any reduced precision and anchor class explicitly.

Delivery end

Earliest dated public signal of energisation, commissioning, operational readiness, or entry into commercial operations.

If an exact operational date is not public, the registry uses the earliest dated public signal that the project has reached that state and keeps the derivation visible on the case record.

Stage model

Planning, permitting, post-consent challenge / review, and build are treated as analytically distinct published stages.

The published diagnosis still exposes four rolled-up stages, but the case registry now stores second-level segments beneath them where official milestone boundaries are available. Older or thinner public records remain coarser and are labelled as such on the case page.

Overlap rule

Where phases overlap, the registry allocates time through explicit segments and does not double-count the same calendar interval in two published stages.

Overlap, challenge holds, source-versioning, and proxy choices remain visible on the case page against the underlying milestone evidence.

Eligibility rule

Only cases with complete start, end, and required phase-boundary anchors are included in the published diagnosis metrics.

Incomplete or still-live cases remain in the registry with exclusion reasons and missing or disputed fields listed explicitly.

Reading order

How to audit the product

Answer, registry, then method
  • Read the published diagnosis first to see the current answer.
  • Use the registry to inspect milestone evidence and exclusion reasons case by case.
  • Return here when you need to understand how anchors and rules shape publication.

Current limits

What this page does not claim yet

Important scope guardrails
  • No population-level claim for all Irish transmission projects.
  • No cross-country comparability claim beyond the current bounded Ireland diagnosis.
  • No assumption that stage windows add up mechanically without overlap adjustment.